The recovery of the economy will be driven by an upswing in domestic demand, supported by the solid backing of fiscal and monetary stimulus. The recovery is expected to be gradual as consumer confidence rises. Markers are pointing upwards and a dynamic restoration. Still far from comparing with pre-Covid19 indicators. On the consumer side:
– Retail Sales +17.7% in May vs -16.4% prior.
– Michigan Consumer Confidence 78.9 in June vs 72.3 prior. -Manufacturing Index: NY Fed -0.2 in May vs -48.5 previous Philly Fed +27.5 in June vs -43.1 previous.
The reestablishment of consumption markers and confidence reflect the result of our projection that will take place in 2021, this will help to recover the purchasing power of the American people and will in turn increase the levels of private savings that favor economic recovery. A notable improvement can be seen in the Logistics Management Index (LMI), in the month of July it reached a reading of 63.
Do you know what LMI stands for? In Usa Gestiones we want to let you know: LMI or Logistics Management Indicators are verifiable performance measures employed to logistics management that facilitates the evaluation, performance and outcome in the process of receiving, storage, inventories, dispatch, distribution, deliveries, invoicing and information flows between parties in the logistics chain. An LMI above 50 indicates growth in the industry; an LMI below 50 indicates contraction. This does not indicate a return to sustained growth as it was for the industry in early 2019 but does represent a very encouraging indicator for the logistics area after the massive downturn suffered in May. The government has authorized a fiscal stimulus package equal to $2.6 trillion (~11% of GDP) and it is very viable that further stimulus will be approved in the coming months to maintain the continuity of the revival of the economy. The Fed has launched 9 programs in total in order to guarantee the flow of credit to companies and the commitment to “unlimited” asset purchases. All of these elements guarantee a very promising economic performance. The best time to invest was 20 years ago. The second best time is now. USA Gestiones.
